Speaking in Manchester during his ‘prime minister in waiting’ phase, Andy Burnham declared his vision was one of “good growth in every postcode, and hope in every heart”. Whether the second part was this Everton fan’s nod to Liverpool’s terrace anthem of ‘You’ll never walk alone’ or just a slightly syrupy soundbite, the first part of Burnham’s promise warrants closer scrutiny.
Ignore for now the ‘good growth’ bit, one which could be pounced on by think tank types – define good – or Treasury spads – any growth would be good, Prime Minister. Good growth is a concept familiar to many in and around the Greater Manchester Combined Authority, where it refers to economic growth that is shared across the combined authority, often using public investment to de-risk projects (among other things). The question of whether that can scale up to the national level is valid, but not what I am asking here.
What I am asking is: are postcodes that useful for explaining policy goals, really?
This post is based on a new IfG report, ‘Good growth in every postcode: What could Andy Burnham’s pledge mean in practice?’ by Dr Matthew Gill.
Everywhere and nowhere
Postcodes are often used by politicians and newspaper sub-editors as a useful catch-all for places that are at once defined and undefined. ‘Postcode lotteries’, for example, are said to decide everything from school places to life expectancy, without having to go into too much detail about where those places are.
But how many people can name any postcodes but their own – other than a handful of references to sport and popular culture? ‘The sun is shining over SW19’ means play will continue at Wimbledon. ‘The mood is gloomy around N17’ is deployed when Spurs are on another tough run. If you are over 30, you will know that East 17 are a band from Walthamstow (London E17). If you work there, you’ll know SW1 means Westminster.
Beyond that, though, such postal language leaves most people thinking things happening in ‘every postcode’ means things will happen in their postcode. Which means their street – not even the one that joins it, their street.
Universalist rhetoric from prime ministers is not new. David Cameron declared that his Big Society – remember that? – would “spread right across our country”, which gave him a bit of leeway. Even Boris Johnson’s promise to “level up the whole of the United Kingdom” avoided being too specific. So Burnham homing in on each and every street could end up being a problem.
Boosterism is back
For one, it’s clearly an impossible promise. Burnham’s boosterism has been praised by many for creating the poll bounce enjoyed since he entered office – and stands in stark contrast to Keir Starmer addressing the nation more or less on day one to tell us things will only get worse, for a bit. But will every single street in the UK improve under Burnham’s watch? Of course not.
He might also undermine an overall good picture with less good local news. Technological change means growth will happen unevenly around the country: AI may boost overall UK productivity but this will be a hard ‘good news story’ to sell to people who live in areas where, say, call centres are a main employer. The data centres that will power the AI boom drain the resources of the local areas they are built in, while creating few jobs; no one wants to share a postcode with one.1
Any GDP boost brought by AI might be a hard ‘good news story’ to sell to people who live in areas where call centres are a main employer
Similarly, for all the celebratory ribbon-cutting that might greet a newly built hospital, a brand new prison – whatever jobs it creates – may not be cheered in the local newspaper either. For a regional mayor-turned-PM who has put so much political capital in localism, accepting that some areas are more equal than others will be tricky political ground to tread.
Perhaps the electorate will allow the new prime minster some latitude on what is, after all, a political slogan in exchange for some better vibes around their government. But if not, Burnham should remember this is a nation of letter writers. They may only know their own postcodes for now, but if the hyper-local benefits promised don’t start to emerge they might be looking up his (it starts with SW1).
Will Driscoll is head of publications at the Institute for Government
Opposition to Data Centres in the UK · Movement: https://www.change.org/m/opposition-to-data-centres-in-the-uk